Kathy Hochul was cruising. Suddenly propelled from obscurity into the New York governor’s office last August, she moved quickly and shrewdly to amass more than $20 million in campaign contributions toward winning a full term in the job, a show of force that helped push Hochul’s strongest rival, state attorney general Letitia James, out of the race, pretty much clearing the Democratic primary field. Hochul, a former congresswoman, seemed perfectly cast for the moment: a cheerful, outgoing woman replacing a raging, scheming man, Andrew Cuomo, who had resigned in disgrace because of a sexual harassment scandal(Cuomo has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing). The glaring contrast produced glowing media coverage of Hochul as New York’s first female governor. It also produced widespread relief in the state’s political class after nearly 12 years of Cuomo’s machinations. “She’s rational,” a senior New York Republican told me about one month into Hochul’s reign. “It’s amazing.”
It’s a funny thing, though, about going from being a breath of fresh air to actually doing the job of governor: You need to make decisions, and those choices inevitably piss off some people. Hochul’s billion-dollar, mostly taxpayer-funded gift of a new National Football League stadium to her native Buffalo is not playing well with the rest of the state’s voters. Oh, and this being New York state politics, elected officials tend to get arrested—most recently, the guy Hochul chose to replace her as lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin. Benjamin had initially appeared to be a crafty pick: Black voters in New York City are a crucial bloc in Democratic primaries, and Benjamin—Black and from Harlem—could have been a useful link for Hochul. But in mid-April Benjamin, accused of trading state money for campaign cash, was indicted by federal prosecutors and promptly resigned, though he has pleaded not guilty to the charges. Hochul has yet to select a replacement.
For all the headlines generated by the bad economics of the Buffalo Bills stadium deal and the allegedly bad behavior of Benjamin, another issue is a more potent problem for Hochul as she tries to establish a firm claim on the governor’s job: the rise in crime, particularly in New York City. The key question is how much she gets blamed for it.“It’s unfair, but this is an election year where being a woman running for a chief executive role is going to be a net negative, because of public safety,” a top New York Democratic strategist says. “She’s a uniquely weak general election candidate in a year when crime is a priority, and now, with Benjamin, she’s got at least a stain of corruption.”
The public, nationally, is in a sour mood when it comes to incumbents, which helps to drag down the governor’s poll numbers and make her political future far more complicated, with June’s Democratic primary closing in and with Cuomo lurking in the shadows. On Monday a Siena College poll showed Hochul’s personal appeal holding steady, but her job performance number underwater—with 57 percent disapproving—and nearly half of those surveyed claiming they’d vote for “someone else” in November if Hochul is on the ballot as the Democratic nominee. “They’re questioning her judgment,” says Bruce Gyory, a veteran Democratic strategist. “She isn’t as strong as she looked in January, when a confluence of factors were in her favor. But the bottom line is to be elected governor of New York, particularly as a Democrat, you need to be able to form a multiracial and cross-regional coalition. And right now she’s the only candidate in position to do that.”
She has a challenger to her left in the Democratic primary—New York City public advocate Jumaane Williams—and one to her right, Representative Tom Suozzi of Long Island. Both have so far failed to get any traction, and the campaign’s first debate is still unscheduled. The leading candidates for the Republican nomination are Andrew (son of Rudy) Giuliani, who has never held elective office, and Representative Lee Zeldin, of Long Island. Both are largely unknown to statewide voters, and Hochul’s camp would be highly confident running against either one, especially considering that New York Democrats enjoy a 4 million voter registration advantage over Republicans. “You always have to worry about everything,” a Hochul insider says. “But Zeldin and Giuliani are tied to the single most unpopular person in the state of New York—and that’s Donald Trump.”
Far more popular, however, despite having resigned in disgrace, is Cuomo; the ex-governor also possesses about $16 million in campaign money, and Cuomo has been popping up in public, stoking speculation about his intentions. In practical terms, though, Cuomo is rapidly running out of time to get on the fall ballot as an independent, with about four weeks left to collect thousands of petition signatures. He hasn’t made any move to hire the necessary solicitors. The more likely scenario is that Cuomo keeps lobbing attacks at Hochul from the sidelines, as he did in a recent Daily News op-ed. “Does he care if that could help elect a Republican? Are you kidding me?” says the top Democratic strategist, who knows Cuomo well, laughing. “This is a chaos agent. If he can’t have power, no one should have power.”
“We didn’t tell her to appoint Brian Benjamin. We didn’t tell her to build the Bills stadium,” Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi says. “The governor has made it clear from the beginning that if he’s got something to say, he’s gonna say it. Nothing has changed. He continues to evaluate his options.”
A Hochul campaign spokesman didn’t respond to a request for comment. There are no sure things in politics, of course, but at this point Hochul remains a solid front-runner. How she navigates her current troubles, though, and dodges any grenades Cuomo may throw her way, will determine whether Hochul wins decisively enough to establish a mandate to lead for the next four years.
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