Abortion ruling, laws energizing women in congressional midterm elections
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Title: Abortion ruling, laws energizing women in congressional midterm elections
Originally reported on www.nola.com by NOLA.com
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Abortion ruling, laws energizing women in congressional midterm elections
Nationally, the number of women registering to vote in the Nov. 8 congressional midterm elections has shot up like a rocket — energized, experts say, by the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision.
Louisiana doesn’t seem to be following suit, but Kansas, Ohio, Arizona, Idaho and other conservative strongholds are reporting noticeable increases in female voter registration since the June 24 ruling, according to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and other national news outlets. Battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan are showing increases as well.
The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision allows states, if they choose, to dramatically restrict access to abortions.
Just a few months ago, Republicans expected to waltz into a majority of the U.S. House, taking about 25 seats, maybe more, depending on the analysis, and of the U.S. Senate by a couple seats.
Historically, midterms tend to be referendums on the party in power. This year, with inflation at a 39-year high and interest rates going up, the GOP had every expectation of doing the same, according to Charlie Cook, a Shreveport native and publisher of the respected Cook Political Report, which tracks and handicaps congressional races across the country.
“For over a year, Republicans wanted this election to be about Biden. Until very recently, it was going to be,” Cook wrote in a column on Labor Day, the traditional start of federal elections. He noted other changes like the price of gasoline going down, the passage of a sheaf of popular bills, and unsavory revelations about former President Donald Trump and some of his supporters.
But reaction to the abortion ruling is playing a major role in energizing women, Democrats and some independents, said Cook and other national experts. It’s not so much the Dobbs decision, alone, but the “trigger laws,” particularly those that ban abortions with no exceptions for rape and incest victims and for fetuses with fatal abnormalities.
“The August 2 sound rejection of a referendum that would have allowed the GOP-controlled legislature in ruby-red Kansas to outlaw abortion underscored that the ground had shifted,” Cook wrote.
Katie Bernhardt, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, also pointed to Kansas as an indicator of how abortion politics are evolving among women of all parties and religious persuasions.
“I’ve had Republican women reach out and say they’re going to vote Democratic in this election,” Bernhardt said. “We’re seeing women energized as never before.”
In Louisiana, only U.S. Rep. Clay Higgins, the Lafayette Republican running for his fourth two-year term, has anything close to a well-funded opponent. Despite more intense opposition, Higgins is expected to easily win in Acadiana.
The five other incumbents — House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson; U.S. Reps Troy Carter, D-New Orleans; Mike Johnson, R-Benton; Julia Letlow, R-Start; and Garret Graves, R-Baton Rouge — also are listed as likely firm winners in the same national rating rosters that have been switching other races from “leaning” to “toss-ups.”
U.S. Sen. John Kennedy, R-Madisonville, has three prominent but poorly funded Democratic opponents. The junior senator also has tens of millions of dollars in his campaign war chest and high popularity ratings, and he makes frequent appearances on Fox News saying things his constituents like to hear in a national forum.
Still, grassroots organizations are noticing voters taking far more interest in the Nov. 8 election.
“Usually, midterms are low-energy and attract little attention,” noted Ashley K. Shelton, head of the Power Coalition, a New Orleans-based advocacy group. “This particular midterm, because of Dobbs, because of high electric bills and because of other issues, has focused a lot of voters in ways we haven’t seen. This isn’t just going to be a stroll for incumbents.”
Members of the Power Coalition for Equity and Justice spread out among tailgaters at Saturday’s game between Southern University and LSU to sign up voters. And that group is only one of a half-dozen others that are holding voter registration events during September, Shelton said.
“There’ll be a record turnout. There’s a lot driving people this time around,” said Jackie Jones, of the Jeremiah Group, a Jefferson Parish community group that conducts voter registration events.
Louisiana has seen some increases in voter registration, but those effects have been muted by relentless decline in Louisiana residents willing to do what needs to be done to participate in elections.
From May 1 — a draft of the Dobbs decision was leaked on May 2 — through Wednesday, the Louisiana Secretary of State’s Office counted 30,275 new voters registering, of whom 54.7% were women.
That’s about 5,000 more women than registered during the same May-September period in 2021. But the ratios based on gender remained consistent as they have for the past decade, with women accounting for about 55% of the total number of voters.
The number of registered voters in Louisiana has decreased during the past 18 months by 84,980 voters, to 3,006,527 on Sept. 1, the Secretary of State’s Office records show, with men and women dropping off proportionally.
“I don’t think that we’ve seen much of an impact from Dobbs,” said Louis Gurvich, head of the Louisiana Republican Party. “Our numbers are up a bit since the decision came out.”
Over the past year, the number of enrolled Democrats dropped by 28,063 registered voters, while Republicans lost 2,674 registered voters. Only voters registered without party affiliation increased their numbers over the past year — by 6,224.
The Secretary of State’s Office noted that since May 2021, Hurricane Ida came ashore, prompting more people to join the steady decline in outmigration.
“One thing to note is that we have a disproportionate share of women registered already. … We have hit a ceiling, so to speak,” said Peter Robins-Brown, executive director of Louisiana Progress, a Baton Rouge-based community organizing and advocacy group.
“We’ve also had a lot of outmigration in a state with regressive policies that particularly harm women. I have no data, but empirically, women are moving. I hear that so much.”
‘News of the Day’ content, as reported by public domain newswires.
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