Abortion Will Affect Americans’ Midterms Votes More Than Ever, Poll Suggests

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Title: Abortion Will Affect Americans’ Midterms Votes More Than Ever, Poll Suggests

Originally reported on www.forbes.com by Alison Durkee

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Topline

More voters say abortion will be a major factor in how they cast their ballot this year as compared with any election year dating back to 1992, a new Gallup poll finds, as the Supreme Court appears poised to overturn Roe v. Wade and leave it up to state and federal lawmakers to decide whether abortion should be legal.

Key Facts

Contra

While groups who are more likely to support abortion rights generally placed more importance on a candidate’s abortion views, respondents who attend church every week were also far more likely to prioritize abortion rights as a political issue. The poll found 34% of regular churchgoers said a candidate must share their abortion views, versus 24% who go “nearly weekly” or monthly and 27% who seldom or never go to church. Only 7% of weekly churchgoers said abortion isn’t a major issue for them.

What To Watch For

The Supreme Court is set to issue its final opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, which will determine the fate of abortion rights, sometime over the next few weeks, before the court’s term wraps up by early July. The draft opinion released by Politico, which overturned Roe v. Wade entirely and declared it “egregiously wrong,” is not yet final, Chief Justice John Roberts has said, though Politico reported that as of mid-May, a majority of justices still wanted to overturn it. If the court does overturn Roe, approximately a dozen states have “trigger bans” that will outlaw the practice immediately, and the pro-abortion rights Guttmacher Institute projects 26 states will ultimately enact abortion bans.

Key Background

Democratic strategists have been hoping the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling will help galvanize the party’s base and get them to the polls in the November midterms, and the Gallup poll is one of several recent surveys that have indicated the draft opinion is affecting voters’ midterms thinking, particularly if they support abortion rights. A recent Morning Consult poll found 49% of voters and 60% of abortion rights supporters were more likely to vote in light of the draft opinion, for instance, and a Quinnipiac University poll found 47% of adults are less likely to support a candidate who supports abortion rights. Polling from before Politico published the opinion indicated Republicans were more enthusiastic about heading to the polls, however, so it still remains to be seen whether abortion will be enough of a motivating factor to get Democrats to cast ballots and close the gap. The midterms will include a number of races that could be pivotal for what states’ abortion policies look like post-Roe, including attorneys general who will be tasked with enforcing abortion bans and gubernatorial races in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Democratic governors have so far been able to block GOP-led legislatures from restricting the procedure.

Further Reading

Abortion Poised to Be a Bigger Voting Issue Than in Past (Gallup)

Overturning Roe V. Wade Makes Half Of Americans More Likely To Vote, Poll Finds As Most Oppose Harsh Abortion Restrictions (Forbes)

Here’s Where Abortion Rights Will Be On The Midterm Ballot In November (Forbes)

47% Of Americans Less Likely To Back Anti-Abortion Congressional Candidates, Poll Finds (Forbes)

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