Jon Rahm’s odds at the 2023 Mexico Open are a callback to Tiger Woods’ prime | CPT PPP Coverage
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Jon Rahm’s odds at the 2023 Mexico Open are a callback to Tiger Woods‘ prime appeared on ftw.usatoday.com by Blake Schuster.
It feels almost cruel to reduce a field of 144 golfers down to a two-man race, but Jon Rahm and Tony Finau give bettors no choice at this week’s 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Rahm, the defending champion, and Finau, last year’s runner-up, are far and away the best golfers in Mexico. So the question is less, “Who should we expect to win?” and more like, “Can Rahm continue putting together an all-time PGA season?”
At +250, no one even comes close to Rahm’s odds at Vidanta. It’s wild to see him at this price even in a weak field — a true callback to the days when Tiger Woods would show up to the course and collect his trophy before the tournament even started.
Golf has seen such an influx of talent in the 15 years since Woods last opened a tournament at +200 or better that it was fair to assume no player would ever be given this much respect from oddsmakers.
That’s what Jon Rahm in 2023 does. And at a course he dominated a year ago, it makes sense for them to fear the No. 1 golfer in the world.
Per PGA Tour’s Mike Glasscott, Vidanta sets up perfectly for Rahm to defend his 2022 title:
The course fits his eye and the strengths of his game. The Masters champion sat second in Ball-Striking and SG: Off the Tee and was third SG: Tee to Green on the way to victory a year ago.
Just one of three players to post all four rounds in the 60s, he co-led the field in Bogey Avoidance. The Spaniard will point out that only one hole, No. 10, gave him difficulty on the week. The par-4, 475-yard beginner to the inward nine supplied three of his five squares. Playing the par 5s in 12-under (T2) and the short par-4 7th in four-under, were the keys to his victory in the scoring department. After sharing the first-round lead on 64 he sat atop the leaderboard alone for the final three rounds.
It’s not like Rahm is lacking incentive this week as he can successfully defend a title for the first time in his career. A win would also make Rahm the first five-time winner in a season since Justin Thomas in 2017.
But Thomas didn’t get his fifth win in 2017 until his final tournament of the year during the President’s Cup in October.
If Rahm gets to No. 5 in late April, it’s not a stretch to think he could become the first player since Vijay Singh in 2004 to win eight events or more in one season.
More importantly: He’d become the first Spaniard to accomplish the feat and only the second non-American.
A chance to chase that kind of history is worth a lot more than the $7.7 million prize pool at the Mexico Open — which, if we’re being honest, probably doesn’t excite Rahm too much given the run he’s on.
There are more enticing wagers out there for bettors who want some action on Rahm this weekend but aren’t in love with taking him at such a low return. First Round Leader and Wire-To-Wire Winner are the two that stand out given how he attacked the course last year.
Jon Rahm should win this week. There are very few reasons why he won’t. The real excitement is what would come next — a march towards history at a time when golf’s throne is up for grabs.
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