Middlebury economist studies changes in US abortion landscape since fall of Roe | CPT PPP Coverage

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MIDDLEBURY, Vt. (WCAX) – Over a year after the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, a Middlebury College professor is studying how the landscape of abortion is changing across the country.

Middlebury College professor of economics Caitlin Myers developed a formula to predict how many people will lose abortion access under current bans and what the ramifications will be. She recently presented her findings at the Henry Sheldon Museum in Middlebury.

“I will calculate distances for each U.S. county to the nearest provider. Then, I’m going to talk about how distance affects people,” explained Middlebury College’s Caitlin Myers.

With abortion banned in 14 states, Myers predicts that 24% of people who can get pregnant in the U.S. will experience a closure of their nearest abortion provider. In affected areas, she anticipates a 22% decrease in abortions and a 3% increase in births. Myers says young people, those in poverty, and people of color are hardest hit.

Still, some pro-life groups see more harm in the alternative. “What negatively affects people of color is legal abortion — as their babies are aborted at a much higher rate than white babies are aborted,” said Mary Hahn Beerworth with Vermont Right to Life.

If more states ban abortion — which Myers says is likely — she says distance to health care providers and birth rates will continue to rise and abortion rates will remain on a downward trend.

Falko Schilling with the ACLU of Vermont says the changes in access were inevitable. “We’re regularly hearing horror stories from across the country about what this decision is doing to people’s lives. And the predictions we’re hearing about what this might mean in terms of lack of access are deeply upsetting but they’re not surprising,” he said.

With reproductive rights now codified in the Vermont Constitution, Myers says Vermont’s abortion access is unlikely to fluctuate significantly. And without a major airport, she doesn’t see Vermont becoming a destination for so-called abortion tourism.

But health care providers like UVM Medical Center’s Dr. Lauren MacAfee do anticipate a small group of people traveling to Vermont for abortions. “We’ve been kind of projecting and expecting somewhere in that 5 to 15% range in increase, primarily associated with patients that have some connection to Vermont — either they lived here previously, they have friends here, they have college roommates here,” she said.

Under Vermont law, health care providers and out-of-state patients cannot be prosecuted for performing or obtaining an abortion within state lines. And as the debate over abortion pills rages on, Vermont doctors with licenses in other states can mail abortion pills to patients residing in those states after determining that they’re within gestational limits and fit to undergo an abortion. This means Vermont health care providers may play a small role in mitigating the effects of nationwide abortion bans.

A handful of international providers offer mail-order abortion pills to anyone in the U.S. This could be useful for people living in states with abortion bans, though MacAfee cautions that the FDDA hasn’t approved these services and users may risk legal ramifications.

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