Political leaders ignoring the biggest threat to our national security
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Political leaders ignoring the biggest threat to our national security.
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Much employment in South-East Asian countries is in the informal sector, with no official social safety nets to support the large populations that will increasingly be displaced by climate-driven disasters.
Climate disruptions, exacerbated by increasing inequality, will contribute to growing food insecurity, refugee flows, ethnic and religious tensions, violence and instability. In Indonesia alone, 275 million people will be jolted by these climate impacts. The security consequences for Indonesia, and for Australia (just 200 kilometres away at the closest point), will be profound.
The third reason climate change should be considered Australia’s main security threat is its impact on China. China is the key player in several existing regional security hotspots, each of which will be significantly affected by climate change. In the South China Sea, sea-level rise and overlapping claims of sovereignty have already caused conflict concerning fishing rights and tensions between the US and China. Tensions will also rise in the Mekong River basin, where China increasingly controls the river flow to the downstream states of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, each under growing pressure from the salination of freshwater and extreme flooding linked to climate change.
Climate disruptions in our immediate neighbourhood, such as severe humanitarian disasters, will also likely contribute to greater competition with China. The Chinese and US militaries (and the Australian Defence Force) may be drawn into the emerging disruptions for humanitarian reasons, to support government stabilisation efforts or out of concern that the other might exploit the situation for strategic advantage. This chaotic operating environment will increase the risk of miscalculation and confrontation. The China-Solomon Islands security deal is an early indication of how this could play out.
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Like Australia, China is highly exposed domestically to climate risk. Two-thirds of Chinese territory suffers from the threat of flooding. The country accounts for 20 per cent of the global population but only 12 per cent of the world’s arable land, much of which is threatened by climate-related drought, and many of its aquifers in the north of the country are already over-exploited. Domestic climate disruptions are likely to have major economic, humanitarian, and internal political consequences for the country which will have significant knock-on consequences for regional security. For example, they are likely to increase the pressures on China to secure access to water and land for agriculture beyond its borders.
We need to begin preparing now for these wide-ranging climate impacts, which scientists tell us are accelerating. The current elections are an important opportunity to begin engaging and informing the Australian public about the scale of the challenge before us and the opportunities to reduce the risks. China must be an important part of that discussion, but as a well-recognised feature of a far more fundamental transformation of our security landscape.
Dr Robert Glasser is the Head of the Climate and Security Policy Centre at The Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
From an External Source.
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