Russia uprising bad news for China’s Xi | CPT PPP Coverage

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The last thing China wants is unpredictability on its doorstep, and Putin’s more than two decades in power gave Beijing a rare period of relative consistency in its dealings with Russia. Putin also worked with former Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

“Like the rest of the world, China has been caught off guard by the Wagner issue and is being very cautious. Regardless of whether you are Putin’s friend or foe, the prospect of unstable, fragmented, nuclearised Russia is a strategic nightmare for everyone,” Yu Bin, professor of political science and director of East Asian Studies at Wittenberg University, told The Australian Financial Review.

Professor Yu said China has a long history of managing Russian instability since relations were normalised in 1989 and would adapt to the current situation whether Mr Putin was in charge or not.

“China is used to these shocks and surprises by those dramatic events in Russia even though it does not necessarily like them. China’s approach is to wait it out and wait for the dust to settle then adjust its policies accordingly,” he said.

“China wants stable and predictable relations with its northern neighbour regardless of who is in the Kremlin. Putin has been on good terms with Xi Jinping’s predecessors as well.”

A successful rebellion against Putin would be an uncomfortable reminder for Xi, who started his third five-year term as president in March, that even the strongest leader in a one-party state cannot last forever.

Experts say it could also weaken his resolve to take military action against Taiwan in the future.

“Wars always carry the risk of compromising civilian control over the military. So, Beijing will likely become ever more cautious about initiating a Taiwan conflict as a result of witnessing this mutiny,” Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist who teaches in the Australia National University’s Taiwan Studies Program, said.

A swift victory in Ukraine for Putin would have worked in Beijing’s favour, and the prolonged conflict, which has weakened Moscow and solidified Western alliances, has not been the outcome China wanted. While Xi is unlikely to shift his position on Ukraine dramatically, his resolve for supporting Putin has been weakened.

“A business partner with no long-term prospects is not one people will make short-term sacrifices for in the name of long-term investment,” Sung said.

“Xi still prefers Putin to the alternatives, but Beijing now has reasons to have more reservations and become more transactional in dealings with Putin.”

China’s Foreign Ministry’s said on Sunday the events in Russia over the weekend were Moscow’s “internal affair”, a line it often uses to criticise other countries who criticise its human rights record and territorial incursions.

“As Russia’s friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” it said.

While Chinese state media downplayed the attempted coup, the country’s social media platforms carried surprisingly diverse views about Putin even though online content in China is usually heavily censored.

“The Chinese public space regarding Ukraine has been deeply dynamic and divided with all kinds of opinions. You don’t normally get that level of public deliberation (in China),” Yu said.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudekno was in Beijing on Sunday to brief the Chinese government on the situation.