What to watch out for in Xi Jinping’s Ukraine war ‘peace plan’ | CPT PPP Coverage

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a major speech on Friday outlining a “peace plan” for the Ukraine war. Here are three questions to which analysts are looking for answers. 

1. Will China provide military aid to Russia? If yes, what sort?

Experts believe that China is unlikely to supply weapons to Russia.

United States and European officials have recently cited intelligence that Beijing was mulling over this possibility, although it has so far refrained from sending lethal aid such as artillery shells.

In response to such concerns, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular media conference on Wednesday that this was “groundless speculation”.

Research fellow James Char of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) believes that the claim of arms supply to Russia remains speculation.

But Beijing has been exploiting Moscow’s predicament by buying more Russian commodities at a discount since the start of the conflict, while avoiding transactions that might risk secondary sanctions, he said.

“I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership would not want to take that risk, especially since the Chinese economy is still in the midst of recovering from its previous zero-Covid policy,” added Dr Char.

Other experts have said that China supplying weapons to Russia could be perceived as an escalation of the war, and worsen relations with the US and other Western nations, running contrary to Beijing’s recent efforts to mend ties.

Dr Benjamin Ho of RSIS’ China programme said China’s goal is simple: So long as the war does not spill into China, it is in Beijing’s interests to have all the major players distracted in Ukraine. 

“Having the West being bogged down with a conflict with Russia clearly works to Beijing’s advantage. Whether that requires China to send lethal weapons or not, I leave it to others’ imagination.”

2. What specific proposals will Mr Xi provide to end the war?

Dr Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, believes that Mr Xi’s peace initiative would include asking both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resume peace talks. 

He could ask other countries to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and for Ukraine to promise not to join the US-led Nato military alliance. He is likely to say that Russia’s security concerns should be respected. 

These are part of China’s basic position on the war, and Dr Chen does not expect a significant policy shift to be announced.

“I don’t think they will ask Russia to withdraw to pre-February 2022 positions or to give up Crimea.”

China has refused to condemn Russia’s action or call it an invasion, instead using Moscow’s line that Nato had provoked the conflict. But Beijing has also said it is against war and the use of nuclear weapons.